An auditor, not a tipster

Dozens of services sell sports predictions produced by machine-learning models and language models. Most publish some picks for free and describe their performance in their own words. PickAuditor is the third party that checks: it captures the public picks every 4 hours, timestamps them, matches them to the event, waits for the official result, and grades each one with the same rule as every other service.

The output is a record per service — hit rate, ROI at a flat stake, closing line value, Brier score where a probability was stated, drawdown and streaks — each figure shown with its sample size and period, and a claim check that puts the service's own stated figures beside the audited ones. Records are public-tier picks captured before kickoff, graded against official results. The complete rule set is on the methodology page.

• Readers deciding whether to pay for a service. The record shows what the free tier did over a defined period, with n, so a stated “72% accuracy” can be read against what was measured.
• Services that want a neutral record. A service whose public picks hold up gains a record it did not write itself, with a right of reply attached. Services can claim their profile or send a feed.
• Journalists and researchers who need dated, timestamped evidence of what a service said before an event rather than after it.

It is not for people looking to be told what to bet. No page on the site does that, and the Pro tier does not either.

• No service owns any part of PickAuditor, and PickAuditor sells no picks.
• Ranking is computed by code from graded picks. Affiliate status, a claimed profile and the paid Verified feed badge are not inputs to that code.
• The step that writes a service's profile text is not told whether an affiliate relationship exists, and every number it writes is checked against the data before publication.
• The site's own consensus meta-models are graded by the same function and appear on the same leaderboard. When they do badly, it shows.
• Every dispute is public, answered within 7 days, and every accepted one is corrected in the record and dated in the changelog.
• Raw HTML of every capture is kept for at least 24 months so any record can be re-checked against what the page showed.
• A service is ranked only after 30 graded public picks; below that its page says “insufficient data” and is not offered to search engines.

Four sources, in the order we expect them to matter, none of which touches a number:

• Affiliate commissions when a reader subscribes to a service through a link on its profile. Disclosed on the profile in one line; policy at Affiliate disclosure.
• Pro, a reader subscription for alerts, exports and charts on top of the same public data. Not open yet.
• The Verified feed badge for services that send their picks as a feed and want validation and dispute priority. It does not affect ranking; the sentence is written on the For services page.
• One sponsor slot per page, labelled as such, never inside a table.

contact@pickauditor.com for disputes, profile claims, feeds, corrections and press. We answer within 7 days. What to include for each is on the contact page. Twitter: @pickauditorhq.